Market Analysis

State of Forest Carbon Markets 2011: From Canopy to Currency

September 29, 2011
Author/organization: 
Ecosystem Marketplace and Forest Trends

This second annual State of the Forest Carbon Markets tracks, reports, and analyzes trends in global transactions of emissions reductions generated from forest carbon projects. The data and analysis that follow cover forest carbon activity in compliance carbon markets as well as voluntary carbon markets—such as the voluntary Over-the-Counter (OTC) market and the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX). The report finds that growing from already record-breaking years in 2008 and 2009, respondents reported a total of 30.1 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) contracted across the primary and secondary markets in 2010. The estimated total value of transactions in 2010 was $178 million. The historical scale of the forest carbon markets climbed to 75 MtCO2e, valued at an estimated $432 million with projects impacting more than 7.9 million hectares in 49 countries from every region of the world. The average price for offsets across the primary forest carbon markets rose from $3.8/tCO2e in 2008, to $4.5/tCO2e in 2009, and up to $5.5/tCO2e in 2010. The 2010 surge in the forest carbon market was fueled to a great extent by contracting from large Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) projects which supplied 19.5 MtCO2e out of the total 29.0 MtCO2e contracted in the primary market.

Download the report here

State of the Forest Carbon Markets 2009

January 13, 2010
Author/organization: 
Ecosystem Marketplace

This report was created to increase transparency and answer fundamental questions about the supply of forestry-based carbon credits, such as transaction volumes, credit prices, hectares influenced and tenure rights. It outlines the aggregate numbers from our survey of 61 project developers (and in some cases, project proponents) and 34 intermediaries representing 226 projects across 40 countries. This report is entirely based on information volunteered by these project developers and intermediaries.

 

Download the Executive Summary here

Download the full State of the Forest Carbon Markets 2009 report here

Listen to a podcast of the launch at Baker & McKenzie in Washington, DC -- January 14, 2010

National Update on REDD+ in Indonesia

October 17, 2011

Indonesia was one of the first developing nations to commit to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2020. Three quarters of Indonesia’s emissions result from deforestation and land degradation, so meeting this commitment will require major changes in how it manages its forests. Indonesia is developing a national strategy for REDD+ which includes respect for rights of indigenous peoples and local communities including the right to Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC). Implementing commitments on the rights of indigenous peoples, in terms of rights in forestry issues as REDD+ plans are developed and implemented, will be a major challenge as land use planning, forestry licensing and agriculture policies and norms do not currently respect community rights.

Some 40 pilot projects and demonstration activities for REDD+ are under development around the archipelago, but none have completed negotiations with affected indigenous peoples and local communities. Most are still in the early stages of discussion with affected communities on potential benefits and costs, even though permits for REDD+ projects are already being issued by national and provincial governments.

Download the briefing here

Effectiveness and legitimacy of forest carbon standards in the OTC voluntary carbon market

October 3, 2011
Author/organization: 
Eduard Merger and Till Pistorius

In recent years, the voluntary over-the-counter (OTC) carbon market has reached a significant market volume. It is particularly interesting for forest mitigation projects which are either ineligible in compliance markets or confronted with a plethora of technical and financial hurdles and lacking market demand. As the OTC market is not regulated, voluntary standards have been created to secure the social and environmental integrity of the traded mitigation projects and thus to ensure the quality of the resulting carbon credits. Building on a theoretical efficiency-legitimacy framework, this study aims to identify and analyse the characteristics and indicators that determine the efficiency and organisational legitimacy of standards for afforestation/reforestation carbon projects.

Results

All interviewed market actors consider third-party certification and standards as a crucial component of market functionality, which provide quality assurance mechanisms that reduce information asymmetries and moral hazard between the actors regarding the quality of carbon credits, and thus reduce transaction costs. Despite this development, the recent evolution of many new and differing standards is seen as a major obstacle that renders it difficult for project developers and buyers to select an appropriate standard.

Assessing the Financial Flows for REDD+: the Pledge-Implementation Gap

June 29, 2011
Author/organization: 
IDEACarbon

A number of countries have instigated programmes that aim to build the capacity to initiate REDD+ based emissions reductions and attract investment. The two largest – in terms of expenditure rates and transfers rather than deposits – are the UN-REDD+ programme and the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF).

This article discusses the current state of financing achieved for REDD+ programmes through the FCPF and the UN-REDD programme, how the state of these REDD+ programmes will affect the implementation of REDD+ and consequent impacts on multilateral efforts to reduce emissions.

  • Of the $200 million pledged for the FCPF Readiness Fund, $86.19 has been committed and $9.857 million has been spent in fiscal year 2009 and 2010, equating to an expenditure rate of 11.44%.
  • Of the total $94 million that was deposited in the UN-REDD programme accounts, $26.7 million was transferred to the accounts of the country offices of the FAO, UNDP & UNEP, as of February 2011.

REDD+ and Carbon Markets: Ten Myths Exploded

June 11, 2011
Author/organization: 
FERN, Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, The Rainforest Foundation

Over the last four years, the United Nations’ negotiations on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation – REDD+ – has become increasingly central in global discussions on climate change. Unfortunately there are still a number of serious misconceptions about the suitability of carbon markets to finance forest protection. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate why these assumptions are false or misleading.

In February 2011, the Secretariat of the UNFCCC invited parties and accredited observer organisations to submit their views on how market-based mechanisms might promote mitigation actions and enhance their costeffectiveness. They were also asked to comment on issues such as ‘safeguarding environmental integrity’, ‘ensuring a net decrease and/or avoidance of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions’, and ‘ensuring good governance and robust market functioning and regulation’.

Many of the resulting submissions in support of carbon trading as an appropriate tool for financing forest protection rely on outdated or false assumptions. They also fail to address the additional criteria that the UNFCCC requested. Below we examine some of the common arguments in favour of forest carbon trading, and challenge the assumption that it is a useful and cost-effective way of mitigating climate change.

 

Visit FERN's website here to download a PDF of the report

Abatement cost curves relating past greenhouse gas emissions to the economic gains they allowed

May 1, 2011
Author/organization: 
Meine van Noordwijk, Sonya Dewi, Suyanto, Peter Minang, Douglas White, Valentina Robiglio, Hoang MH, Andree Ekadinata, Rachmat Mulia, Degi Harja; World Agroforestry Centre

Abatement curves summarize the costs that are involved in reduction of pollution, in this case net greenhouse gas emissions, based on the volume of various types of emissions and the expected cost per unit emission reduction. Such representations support policy development, identifying an initial focus on the low-cost high-volume emission categories. Four approaches are described and compared to do such analysis for tropical forest margins in the context of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and (forest) degradation. The four methods, of increasing complexity and costs of data collection are appropriate in different steps along the pathway to negotiated agreements that can meet ‘Free and Prior Informed Consent’ standards, while reducing overall transaction costs by early warnings for cases that are unlikely to lead to mutually beneficial agreements. In early screening of potential cases, a comparison of profitability and time-averaged carbon stock of the different landuse options within an area can be used to confirm that there are no high C stock + high profitability land uses (if there are the question shifts to why these are not universally adopted) and that there generally is a tradeoff. The presence of low C stock + low profitability land uses, can direct the focus on prevention of degradation and possibilities of win+win restoration. For a Project Information Note (PIN) this may give sufficient initial clues. In landscapes where tradeoffs are confirmed, a further quantification and spatial study of the emission pattern can use pixel-level ratios of change in C stock and profitability as basis for C price estimates (‘OpCost curves’). Such curves give an indication of baseline emissions and the opportunity for economic incentives to shift away from emissions that yielded low benefits in terms of profitability increases in land use. Such information can inform Project Design Documents (PDD). For further negotiations of contracts, forward looking landscape scenarios can further support the negotiations, as they can help define the bottom-line levels of alternative livelihood provisions that will be needed to make low C emission scenarios equivalent in terms of local economy to high C stock emission business as usual scenarios. Finally, further detail on the scenarios by inclusion of agent-based variation in resources and preferences may add further detail, but for this class of methods further tests are needed to judge their predictive value and relevance in the negotiation processes.

 

Find a link to download the publication here

REDDy Set Grow: Opportunities and roles for financial institutions in forest carbon markets

May 6, 2011
Author/organization: 
Marianna Doria and Francisco Ascui (Ecosecurities), commissioned by UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative

REDDy – Set – Grow explained

Part 1: A briefing for financial institutions

This part of the report provides private sector actors, particularly financial institutions, with an overview of the current and emerging business opportunities in forest-based climate-change mitigation, including an assessment of the risks involved and possible measures to reduce them. This will also be useful for policy makers in understanding the approach and needs of financial institutions.

Part 1 will address the following questions:
  • What is the current shape and status of forest carbon markets?
  • What are the emerging opportunities for, and potential roles of, investors and financial institutions?
  • What experiences have been made by financial actors when establishing operations in this space?
  • What are the risks and barriers that private actors face?

Options for REDD+ Voluntary Certification to Ensure Net GHG Benefits, Poverty Alleviation, Sustainable Management of Forests and Biodiversity Conservation

April 29, 2011
Author/organization: 
Eduard Merger, Michael Dutschke and Louis Verchot

Our objective was to compare and evaluate the practical applicability to REDD+ of ten forest management, social, environmental and carbon standards that are currently active worldwide: Climate, Community and Biodiversity (CCB), CCB REDD+ Social and Environmental Standards (CCBA REDD+ S&E), CarbonFix Standard (CFS), Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), Global Conservation Standard (GCS), ISO 14064:2006, Plan Vivo Standard, Programme for Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC), SOCIALCARBON Standard and the Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS). We developed a framework for evaluation of these standards relative to each other using four substantive criteria: (1) poverty alleviation, (2) sustainable management of forests (SMF), (3) biodiversity protection, (4) quantification and assessment of net greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits; and two procedural criteria: (5) monitoring and reporting, and (6) certification procedures. REDD programs require assessment of GHG benefits, monitoring, reporting and certification. Our analysis shows that only the Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) treats these three criteria comprehensively. No standard provides comprehensive coverage of the social and other environmental criteria. FSC, PEFC and CarbonFix provide comprehensive assessments of the sustainable forest management criterion. CCBA REDD+ S&E, CCB, and GCS provide comprehensive coverage of the biodiversity and poverty alleviation criteria. Experience in using these standards in pilot projects shows that projects are currently combining several standards as part of their strategy to improve their ability to attract investment, but costs of implementing several certification schemes is a concern. We conclude that voluntary certification provides useful practical experience that should feed into the design of the international REDD+ regime.

Donwload the article here

Estimating the Opportunity Costs of REDD+

April 13, 2011
Author/organization: 
World Bank Institute

This training manual shares hands-on experiences from field programs and presents the essential practical and theoretical steps, methods and tools to estimate the opportunity costs of REDD+ at the national level.

REDD stands for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. REDD+ additionally includes conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of carbon stocks in developing countries. The manual addresses the calculation of costs and benefits of the various land use alternatives in relation to their carbon stocks and the identification of economic trade-offs involved in REDD+ activities. As required data are generally not readily available, the manual also includes information on data collection, analysis and evaluation techniques.

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